Friday, November 05, 2004
This was not a close election.
When Bush wins Ohio by nearly 140000 votes and Florida by nearly four million, there really isn't much hope for a Kerry win. More importantly from the shut-up-Democrats point of view is the first popular vote majority since 1988 and an increase for Bush's share of the votes in 87% of all counties (from yesterday's NYTimes). Put in state terms, the result is even more staggering: here is a map, with the states where Bush's share of the popular vote increased in red (note that I didn't bother with a comparable blue map because Nader voters swinging to Kerry). With the exception of New England, most of the white states (where Bush's share fell) can probably be attributed to voter apathy in races where Bush is sure to win anyways. The electoral math wasn't working in Kerry's favour, and the popular vote total suggests a major mandate from the people.
The election was not won on the Religious Right.
Andrew Coyne has already done the numbers on this one in "Invasion of the theo-cons".
The exit polls are an inaccurate tool for predicting the winner.
Partially correct: exit polls are probably an inaccurate tool for gauging anything. The only reason why nobody disputes the other results from the exit polls is because nobody marks on their ballot sheets the reasons they vote and what ethnicity they are and so on. Which is why I actually take the "Religious Right won it" argument with a grain of salt.