Thursday, July 29, 2004
I must say that I think that SDB might even be a little bit more optimistic than me about the PRC's reliability (although he obviously has given this more thought than I have), but I agree with his assessment that such a solution would be a considerably more stable situation than the status quo. Personally, I think that the ideal situation would be:
- The PLA establishes law and order.
- The "West" (i.e. RoK, USA, Japan; ironically all east of the DPRK) provide the bulk of economic support.
- An administration by a RoK-PRC-USA triumvirate with an explicit reunification mandate.
Wow, all that was pretty circular...
And that's not even counting the simple question of exactly how easy/hard it would be for the PLA + RoK Army to take out the Norkies if they resist.
Yah, if the PLA is ever sent across the Taiwan Strait, it sure won't be pretty. But since the PRC still isn't in a position to definitely win, it won't happen. For now.
Note: the Northeast region is pretty much Han these days, because massive migrations into the region since the 19th Century (to counterbalance Russian interference) has pretty much assimilated the Manchus.
In summary, I must say that it's a pretty iffy scenario at this point, but I'm just happy to know my intuitive attraction to the idea has some actual support out there.