Thursday, July 29, 2004

Heresy Endorsement 

I'm not sure how I missed this one when it was first written over a year ago (I found this linked to a more recent entry), but when someone like Steven Den Beste agrees with my idea of a Chinese occupation of North Korea, I feel a little more comfortable that it's not just my manic nationalist side trying to get out.

I must say that I think that SDB might even be a little bit more optimistic than me about the PRC's reliability (although he obviously has given this more thought than I have), but I agree with his assessment that such a solution would be a considerably more stable situation than the status quo. Personally, I think that the ideal situation would be:

But the PRC might be able to do a half-decent job of administering the region iff they're freaked out enough about the refugee issue. I must say, though, that it is a big iff.

And now I await the stream of condemnations for supporting the next Great Satan.
While I don't think China would even want North Korea, the best (and most "natural") option would be a reunification of Korea. Though I'm a little scared by the word "occupation" if you're using it in the sense of the american occupation of Iraq, which I don't think you are in the first place. The only occupation CHina might be interested in would be Taiwan ... which would make the Iraq war look like a hissyfit if the said ROC/PRC war ever took place.

Wow, all that was pretty circular...

I must clarify that I expect any PLA deployment between the Yalu and the DMZ would be intended to be temporary with the objective of some sort of reunification deal. Is it realistic? Hard to say: if the final deal satisfies PRC security concerns about a US ally right next to the eastern Han region (as opposed to the hinterland out west), then reunification would probably be a very likely scenario.

And that's not even counting the simple question of exactly how easy/hard it would be for the PLA + RoK Army to take out the Norkies if they resist.

Yah, if the PLA is ever sent across the Taiwan Strait, it sure won't be pretty. But since the PRC still isn't in a position to definitely win, it won't happen. For now.

Note: the Northeast region is pretty much Han these days, because massive migrations into the region since the 19th Century (to counterbalance Russian interference) has pretty much assimilated the Manchus.

In summary, I must say that it's a pretty iffy scenario at this point, but I'm just happy to know my intuitive attraction to the idea has some actual support out there.
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